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2026-02-24

100 Avalanche Deaths by February in Europe: Are the Mountains More Dangerous Than Ever?






At the moment it seems that not a day goes by without more avalanche deaths. And the fact is that as of February 22, 100 people have already lost their lives in avalanches across Europe and avalanche season extends all the way to May.

The headlines have come in waves over the past two weeks: multiple fatal slides in France, Austria, Switzerland, and Italy. Entire regions have been under Level 4 avalanche warnings, with isolated pockets briefly touching Level 5—the highest danger rating—and to be fair, not one that you see very often in Europe. At the moment it feels that Level 4 is the new normal across the Alps and to many, it feels like the mountains are unraveling.



Related: Massive Avalanche Kills 3 in Popular Austrian Ski Resort St. Anton



But let’s take a step back from the news cycle, and look at it from a purely statistical picture. While we do not have historical data by month, we can look at the total avalanche deaths for the last 20 winters across Europe and you will see that avalanche fatalities fluctuate widely year to year. The average or mean over those two decades comes out to 104.35 deaths per winter. The standard deviation—a statistical measure of how much the numbers typically swing around that average—is 35.64. This means that in a typical European winter 69 to 140 people will die in avalanches. That range represents typical variability—and while it is uncomfortable to say so, it is historically consistent.

In the last 20 years, the worst winter was in 2009-10, when 194 people perished in avalanches. At the other extreme sits the first COVID winter, when European resorts shut by early March and travel restrictions dramatically reduced backcountry traffic in Europe. Excluding that year nudges the average slightly higher, but not enough to change the overall conclusion. So while this season will finish above the 20-year moving average of 104 deaths, it does not yet represent a historic spike outside normal fluctuation.

What we are witnessing right now is less a runaway trend and more a cluster. February is historically the deadliest month in the Alps. Snowpacks are deepest. Powder fever is high. Backcountry traffic peaks. Exposure increases. When several fatal accidents occur within days of each other, the psychological impact multiplies.



Layered on top of that is this winter’s unique snowpack story in Europe. The season began with very early snow, followed by very little snow and prolonged cold temperatures—the perfect recipe for what German-speaking forecasters call an “Altschneeproblem,” or old snow problem. Early-season weak layers formed near the ground and lingered for weeks. Then, in February, came the storms. In parts of France and the western Alps, snowfall totals have approached snowfall levels not seen in nearly three decades. Massive new loads of snow, combined with strong winds, were deposited onto an already fragile base.

Fresh slabs sitting on a persistent weak layer are textbook avalanche conditions. Add wind transport creating dense drifted snow in gullies and lee slopes, and you have a classic high-consequence setup.



Related: Most Avalanche Deaths by Country



Several models have been trying to calculate the effects of climate change on the frequency of avalanches, but the reliability of these models remains to be proven. Warmer winters may mean fewer cold dry slab cycles at lower elevations but more wet-snow instabilities at higher altitudes. It’s not as simple as “less snow equals fewer avalanches.” The current situation seems more of a typical avalanche set-up after a poor start to the winter, followed by a massive storm than an outlier driven by climate change. The only noticable affect from climate change that can be seen is that the snow line has shifted up, meaning avalanches are in most cases occurring in high-alpine terrain. All of the 15 Swiss avalanche deaths this season occurred in high alpine terrain, above 2,200 meters (7,200 feet) and mostly over 2,500 meters (8,200 feet), where snowpack instability on steep, exposed slopes creates the highest avalanche risk.

It is also important to remember that avalanche statistics alone never tell the whole story. Human behavior, terrain choice, group dynamics, and decision-making play a decisive role in each individual avalanche death. Even under stable hazard trends, accidents can rise if more people venture into complex terrain without the training to assess it or are traveling in larger groups.

The takeaway from this winter is not panic—but perspective. The European avalanche deaths are at this stage within their historical range of variability. The mountains are not “more dangerous than ever.” They are dangerous in the way they always have been: episodically, conditionally, and unforgivingly when weak layers meet heavy snowfall and human behavior, which at times can be flawed.

So how do you stay safe? Read the avalanche bulletin every day and pay attention not just to the danger level, but to the described problem: altitude bands, slope aspects, and specific weak layers. Treat Level 3 as serious—just because the avalanche risk has dropped does not mean they cannot happen. In fact, most deaths happen at Level 3. Avoid slopes steeper than 30° when persistent weak layers are present. Be wary after heavy snowfall combined with wind. Carry a beacon, shovel and probe, but remember—most importantly—that equipment does not replace conservative decision-making. Because in avalanche terrain, your choices matter so you do not become a statistic.



The post 100 Avalanche Deaths by February in Europe: Are the Mountains More Dangerous Than Ever? appeared first on SnowBrains.

Ссылка на источник: https://snowbrains.com/100-avalanche-deaths-by-february-in-europe-are-the-mountains-more-dangerous-than-ever/


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