New Andes Avalanche Center Debuts in Chile and Argentina, Bringing Crucial Forecasting to South America

One man’s vision to make the backcountry ski scene in the Andes a safer, more information-connected place is finally coming to fruition. When founder of APEX Backcountry Guides (Andes Puro Exploraciones) Forrest Schmidt first arrived in the Araucanía region of Chile in 2012, he was drawn in by the vast ski terrain consisting of towering, snow-capped volcanos, ancient Araucaría forests, and the friendliness of the people there — warm, inviting, and happy to share their local knowledge of what appeared to him to be a world-class ski region, although mostly undeveloped. Schmidt, who was raised in Upstate New York and earned experience backcountry skiing over many winters in Colorado, was especially drawn into the ruggedness of the area; it was remote, there was limited infrastructure, and there was no avalanche forecast available. Day by day, he and the other locals had to analyze the snow themselves and base their decisions off of what they saw. It was then that he noticed a large gap that he one day hoped to bridge.

14 winters in Chile later, a wife, and now successful backcountry ski guiding operation and Schmidt has launched a website and mobile application fulfilling his premonition that took root nearly a decade and a half prior: a new avalanche forecast center for Araucanía and other remote alpine regions of Chile and Argentina. The Andes Avalanche Center (AAC) was born.

“Coming out of the states where it’s just commonplace that there is an avalanche forecast, I was kind of mind blown way back then that that didn’t exist,” Schmidt told me over a WhatsApp call. “And the inspiration really is just to help the community and to help keep people safer because I find that down here, avalanche problems obviously still exist. Very few people are really aware of what they’re putting themselves into day to day.”



Schmidt based his forecast model off of similar frameworks that North American avalanche centers like the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) use. It includes a danger rating scale of 1-5 with that level translated through different elevation bands, 24-hour-cycle wind and snow reports, and an observations page that anyone can upload their snow and avalanche observations to — all of which is detailed in a brief synopsis at the forefront of the forecast by Schmidt himself, in both English and Spanish. He and his team are in the field daily, digging snow profile pits to understand the layering within the snowpack, making observations and gathering data. It’s a demanding and time-consuming process.



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“It’s really a full-time job,” Schmidt said. “It could be a part-time job, but at this point, I’m really trying to set the standard for what’s happening down here with proper observations that are pulled every single day and updated to the public. It’s definitely been time-consuming and has also been super rewarding, too, to see something come to life and to maintain the discipline of putting up a forecast every day when it really is coming from just the pure intention of helping the public.”

The AAC allows both professionals and the public to submit observations from the field — a crucial feature in Chile where historical avalanche data and fatal incidents such as the tragic 2023 deaths of freerider Tof Henry and Chilean guide Juan Señoret have sometimes been obscured due to local publicity concerns. Schmidt hopes the app will encourage the open sharing of avalanche-related incidents and serve as a sort of public registry that can help future recreationists identify historic avalanche paths and avoid past mistakes. “I think that it’s definitely going to improve decision-making in general,” Schmidt said. “People who may have just brazenly charged into the mountains because they were painted white — they’ll think a little more.”



So far, public response to the AAC has been exceedingly positive. “The response from the community has been fantastic,” Schmidt told me. “They really have said how happy they are. And one of the big things is that it provides more knowledge that’s just at hand, as opposed to people walking into the mountains day after day and not having any clue.”

Even though people have been skiing in Chile’s world-class ski terrain for decades, the level of avalanche awareness is nowhere near up to par with other popular powder hotspots like those throughout the United States, Canada, or the Alps. Schmidt hopes that the AAC can help fill that void between great ski terrain that is inherently dangerous with an eager public who generally lacks the skills to navigate it safely. “I find that avalanche education is still really lacking here. There’s so many people who need to take a course, but at least with a platform like this, they can get some information that is solid and help make better decisions as they go out day to day,” he said.



Related: Chasing Powder: The Ultimate Guide to Skiing in Chile





There is a certain local stigma in Araucanía, as explained to me by Schmidt, that the Southern Andes have a very stable maritime snowpack that is immune to avalanches. But that’s not true. Schmidt elaborated how the region holds more of an intermountain snowpack (think snowpack in Utah, Wyoming, and Montana) that is highly susceptible to wind slabs and persistent weak layers that can produce large avalanches big enough to kill backcountry travelers. Where Schmidt operates near Malalcahuello, the current high alpine zones are holding a deep snowpack of 190 to 300 centimeters, but a rain crust formed on July 16 that remains somewhat reactive and requires careful navigation. The avalanche forecast from the AAC on Wednesday, July 22, reads:

“It is likely that heavy snow and rain will fall up to 1800m of elevation and quickly take a snowpack that is on the brink to a breaking point. Widespread avalanches will occur on aspects >30° is the snowfall turns to rain before the front passes around mid-day. It is very likely that any pitches >30° will release with the rapid addition of weight as the snowpack has weak layers within the colder snow. Avoiding avalanche terrain or being in the run-out of avalanche paths is the best plan for increasing your margin of safety today.”



Looking ahead, Schmidt projects that daily forecasts will run through October, although he plans to keep producing them as long as there is valid reason to. “We presume that the snow is going to continue to fall into October, and with that, it’s not as if people are going to travel less in the backcountry. Actually, completely the opposite. As the weather gets nicer into the spring, with more and more guided groups from outside, more people will be out recreating throughout the day. So I think it’s crucial to keep this running through October until the snowpack really says ‘I’m done shedding.’ That being said, we will also post sporadically after that if there is a need.”

As far as a long-term vision is concerned, Schmidt only hopes that the AAC can receive more support and funding so that the Araucanía region and other isolated parts of the Andes can install mountain telemetry such as snow and wind sensors to create more accurate avalanche forecasts. He aspires that his new avalanche center will one day gain official government backing from both Chile and Argentina. “The long-term vision really is to get the funding and actually turn it into a career here in Chile, ” he said. “In the States, there are multiple forecasters that have been working in the industry for decades, and with that, you get two things: you get a lot of professionalism through experience and years doing it, and you also get better information that comes through to the public that becomes more and more reliable and trustworthy year after year. The idea being of growing this into an entity that is backed by not only the public who wants to recreate, but also by brands who see the value of helping people recreate safely in the backcountry — and further down the road, hopefully get both the Chilean and Argentinian governments involved in it, so that it really is an initiative that is not just out of passion and a love for the community, but rather one that sees it as something that will help our tourism industry grow safely into the future.”



By standardizing safety protocols and improving public decision-making, Schmidt’s dream is that the AAC will continue to protect the local community and ensure the region’s winter tourism industry can grow safely into the future — a crucial component of a backcountry ski destination that has seen a steady increase in popularity since he arrived nearly 15 years ago. “Even though avalanche education here is lacking, the motivation to be in the mountains has never been anything that’s been short here in Chile. It’s always been happening, from mountaineers to ski touring and splitboarding more and more year after year — it’s growing. So it’s been great to just be able to offer something that people can rely on that’s consistent as well.”

The mountains are not getting any safer. Especially in a day and age where climate change seems to throw weather patterns for a loop, leading to more sporadic, less-frequent but higher intensity snowstorms, just like the recent storm cycle in Chile that dropped over 15 feet of new snow in 7 days, impacting the very regions that the AAC has begun producing forecasts in. These weather events lead to dangerous avalanche cycles, flooding, landslides, and a variety of other hazards that are becoming more unpredictable and more destructive year after year. But with passionate dreamers like Forrest Schmidt and his network of like-minded snow professionals, gathering the data to help minimize the risk and maximize the pleasure is growing faster than ever before.



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